Generalized Permutohedra from Probabilistic Graphical Models

A graphical model encodes conditional independence relations via the Markov properties. For an undirected graph these conditional independence relations can be represented by a simple polytope known as the graph associahedron, which can be constructed as a Minkowski sum of standard simplices. There is an analogous polytope for conditional independence relations coming from a regular Gaussian model, and it can be defined using multiinformation or relative entropy. For directed acyclic graphical models and also for mixed graphical models containing undirected, directed and bidirected edges, we give a construction of this polytope, up to equivalence of normal fans, as a Minkowski sum of matroid polytopes. Finally, we apply this geometric insight to construct a new ordering-based search algorithm for causal inference via directed acyclic graphical models.Comment: Appendix B is expanded. Final version to appear in SIAM J. Discrete Mat

OpenEssayist: a supply and demand learning analytics tool for drafting academic essays

This paper focuses on the use of a natural language analytics engine to provide feedback to students when preparing an essay for summative assessment. OpenEssayist is a real-time learning analytics tool, which operates through the combination of a linguistic analysis engine that processes the text in the essay, and a web application that uses the output of the linguistic analysis engine to generate the feedback. We outline the system itself and present analysis of observed patterns of activity as a cohort of students engaged with the system for their module assignments. We report a significant positive correlation between the number of drafts submitted to the system and the grades awarded for the first assignment. We can also report that this cohort of students gained significantly higher overall grades than the students in the previous cohort, who had no access to OpenEssayist. As a system that is content free, OpenEssayist can be used to support students working in any domain that requires the writing of essays

Multisite Weather Generators Using Bayesian Networks: An Illustrative Case Study for Precipitation Occurrence

ABSTRACT: Many existing approaches for multisite weather generation try to capture several statistics of the observed data (e.g. pairwise correlations) in order to generate spatially and temporarily consistent series. In this work we analyse the application of Bayesian networks to this problem, focusing on precipitation occurrence and considering a simple case study to illustrate the potential of this new approach. We use Bayesian networks to approximate the multi-variate (-site) probability distribution of observed gauge data, which is factorized according to the relevant (marginal and conditional) dependencies. This factorization allows the simulation of synthetic samples from the multivariate distribution, thus providing a sound and promising methodology for multisite precipitation series generation.We acknowledge funding provided by the project MULTI‐SDM (CGL2015‐ 66583‐R, MINECO/FEDER)

The IBMAP approach for Markov networks structure learning

In this work we consider the problem of learning the structure of Markov networks from data. We present an approach for tackling this problem called IBMAP, together with an efficient instantiation of the approach: the IBMAP-HC algorithm, designed for avoiding important limitations of existing independence-based algorithms. These algorithms proceed by performing statistical independence tests on data, trusting completely the outcome of each test. In practice tests may be incorrect, resulting in potential cascading errors and the consequent reduction in the quality of the structures learned. IBMAP contemplates this uncertainty in the outcome of the tests through a probabilistic maximum-a-posteriori approach. The approach is instantiated in the IBMAP-HC algorithm, a structure selection strategy that performs a polynomial heuristic local search in the space of possible structures. We present an extensive empirical evaluation on synthetic and real data, showing that our algorithm outperforms significantly the current independence-based algorithms, in terms of data efficiency and quality of learned structures, with equivalent computational complexities. We also show the performance of IBMAP-HC in a real-world application of knowledge discovery: EDAs, which are evolutionary algorithms that use structure learning on each generation for modeling the distribution of populations. The experiments show that when IBMAP-HC is used to learn the structure, EDAs improve the convergence to the optimum

The identification of informative genes from multiple datasets with increasing complexity

Background In microarray data analysis, factors such as data quality, biological variation, and the increasingly multi-layered nature of more complex biological systems complicates the modelling of regulatory networks that can represent and capture the interactions among genes. We believe that the use of multiple datasets derived from related biological systems leads to more robust models. Therefore, we developed a novel framework for modelling regulatory networks that involves training and evaluation on independent datasets. Our approach includes the following steps: (1) ordering the datasets based on their level of noise and informativeness; (2) selection of a Bayesian classifier with an appropriate level of complexity by evaluation of predictive performance on independent data sets; (3) comparing the different gene selections and the influence of increasing the model complexity; (4) functional analysis of the informative genes. Results In this paper, we identify the most appropriate model complexity using cross-validation and independent test set validation for predicting gene expression in three published datasets related to myogenesis and muscle differentiation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that models trained on simpler datasets can be used to identify interactions among genes and select the most informative. We also show that these models can explain the myogenesis-related genes (genes of interest) significantly better than others (P < 0.004) since the improvement in their rankings is much more pronounced. Finally, after further evaluating our results on synthetic datasets, we show that our approach outperforms a concordance method by Lai et al. in identifying informative genes from multiple datasets with increasing complexity whilst additionally modelling the interaction between genes. Conclusions We show that Bayesian networks derived from simpler controlled systems have better performance than those trained on datasets from more complex biological systems. Further, we present that highly predictive and consistent genes, from the pool of differentially expressed genes, across independent datasets are more likely to be fundamentally involved in the biological process under study. We conclude that networks trained on simpler controlled systems, such as in vitro experiments, can be used to model and capture interactions among genes in more complex datasets, such as in vivo experiments, where these interactions would otherwise be concealed by a multitude of other ongoing events

Evolutionary approaches for the reverse-engineering of gene regulatory networks: A study on a biologically realistic dataset

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inferring gene regulatory networks from data requires the development of algorithms devoted to structure extraction. When only static data are available, gene interactions may be modelled by a Bayesian Network (BN) that represents the presence of direct interactions from regulators to regulees by conditional probability distributions. We used enhanced evolutionary algorithms to stochastically evolve a set of candidate BN structures and found the model that best fits data without prior knowledge.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We proposed various evolutionary strategies suitable for the task and tested our choices using simulated data drawn from a given bio-realistic network of 35 nodes, the so-called insulin network, which has been used in the literature for benchmarking. We assessed the inferred models against this reference to obtain statistical performance results. We then compared performances of evolutionary algorithms using two kinds of recombination operators that operate at different scales in the graphs. We introduced a niching strategy that reinforces diversity through the population and avoided trapping of the algorithm in one local minimum in the early steps of learning. We show the limited effect of the mutation operator when niching is applied. Finally, we compared our best evolutionary approach with various well known learning algorithms (MCMC, K2, greedy search, TPDA, MMHC) devoted to BN structure learning.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We studied the behaviour of an evolutionary approach enhanced by niching for the learning of gene regulatory networks with BN. We show that this approach outperforms classical structure learning methods in elucidating the original model. These results were obtained for the learning of a bio-realistic network and, more importantly, on various small datasets. This is a suitable approach for learning transcriptional regulatory networks from real datasets without prior knowledge.</p

Corrected score methods for estimating Bayesian networks with error-prone nodes

Motivated by inferring cellular signaling networks using noisy flow cytometry data, we develop procedures to draw inference for Bayesian networks based on error-prone data. Two methods for inferring causal relationships between nodes in a network are proposed based on penalized estimation methods that account for measurement error and encourage sparsity. We discuss consistency of the proposed network estimators and develop an approach for selecting the tuning parameter in the penalized estimation methods. Empirical studies are carried out to compare the proposed methods and a naive method that ignores measurement error with applications to synthetic data and to single cell flow cytometry data

Association analyses of the MAS-QTL data set using grammar, principal components and Bayesian network methodologies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It has been shown that if genetic relationships among individuals are not taken into account for genome wide association studies, this may lead to false positives. To address this problem, we used Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model and Regression and principal component stratification analyses. To account for linkage disequilibrium among the significant markers, principal components loadings obtained from top markers can be included as covariates. Estimation of Bayesian networks may also be useful to investigate linkage disequilibrium among SNPs and their relation with environmental variables.</p> <p>For the quantitative trait we first estimated residuals while taking polygenic effects into account. We then used a single SNP approach to detect the most significant SNPs based on the residuals and applied principal component regression to take linkage disequilibrium among these SNPs into account. For the categorical trait we used principal component stratification methodology to account for background effects. For correction of linkage disequilibrium we used principal component logit regression. Bayesian networks were estimated to investigate relationship among SNPs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model and Regression and principal component stratification approach we detected around 100 significant SNPs for the quantitative trait (p<0.05 with 1000 permutations) and 109 significant (p<0.0006 with local FDR correction) SNPs for the categorical trait. With additional principal component regression we reduced the list to 16 and 50 SNPs for the quantitative and categorical trait, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>GRAMMAR could efficiently incorporate the information regarding random genetic effects. Principal component stratification should be cautiously used with stringent multiple hypothesis testing correction to correct for ancestral stratification and association analyses for binary traits when there are systematic genetic effects such as half sib family structures. Bayesian networks are useful to investigate relationships among SNPs and environmental variables.</p

Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.</p